The Winter Outlook includes a Union-wide simulation of gas supply disruptions, including scenarios of prolonged Russian gas supply disruptions.
 

The report assesses the ability of the European gas system to remain stable under normal or cold winter conditions and high demand. The outlook takes into account limited Russian imports via the Ukraine route (after the end of December 2024) and Turkstream as well as additional demand from Moldova. Simulations for summer 2025 were also included upon request.

The key results at a glance

• EU gas storage levels were at 94% (1,083 TWh) on 1 October 2024, comparable to the previous year. This is due to the high level (59%) at the start of storage, lower gas consumption and special measures taken by the Member States.
• A withdrawal from storage at the beginning of the winter could mean low reserves at the end of the winter and an increased risk of demand reductions in cold weather. Some European countries hold reserves as strategic stocks.
• In order to reach the target of 90 % storage level by the end of summer 2025, it is necessary to hold back gas at the beginning of the injection period (between 30 % and 40 %), depending on the availability of LNG.
• Europe could reach a storage level of 40% by the end of winter despite the lack of Russian pipeline gas, demonstrating independence from Russian supplies.
• Additional storage flexibility could be achieved by utilising Ukrainian storage facilities, provided this gas can be injected and withdrawn during the winter season and market participants are willing to use it. Potential gas transit through Ukraine between Member States could improve interconnectivity between the CEE and SEE regions.
• In case of a complete loss of Russian pipeline supplies during a cold winter in combination with significantly lower LNG supplies, the simulation results showed that the introduction of possible measures, such as additional supplies and a 15% reduction in gas demand, would avoid the risk of demand reductions and achieve an adequate storage level.
• LNG supplies and supplies from Norway are the largest sources of supply for EU Member States and Energy Community Contracting Parties.
   

Piotr Kuś, Director General of ENTSOG, commented: ‘It is pleasing to see storage levels once again significantly higher than usual at this time of year and the current stable supply situation is the result of the continuous efforts of Member States. The assessment reinforces the need to inject gas during the summer period and to consider options for storage flexibility to ensure that the EU is adequately prepared for the winter.’
 

Click here for the ENTSOG ‘Winter Supply Outlook 2024’