ENTSOG publishes Summer Supply Outlook 2024

The European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG) recently released its Summer Supply Outlook for 2024, providing an outlook for the upcoming winter and a review of the summer 2023.

The report analyses gas injection levels and potential trends in demand, supply and exports from 1 April to 30 September 2024, taking into account several factors such as reduced Russian gas imports and potential disruptions to pipeline supplies from Russia, as well as various LNG supply options. An innovative aspect is the inclusion of the seasonal flexibility potential of Ukrainian storage facilities in the model.

Key findings of the report include:

  • EU gas stocks at the beginning of the period are 59% or 663 TWh above the five-year average due to lower gas consumption.
  • New gas infrastructure projects, in particular LNG terminals, improve the security of supply in the EU, but could create supply bottlenecks.
  • Additional storage flexibility could be achieved by storing additional volumes in Ukrainian storage facilities.
  • The assessment underlines the independence of the EU gas system from Russian pipeline supplies, especially if certain demand reduction measures are taken into account.

In addition, the report includes an analysis for the winter of 2024/25 which shows that, based on a 59% stock level on 1 April 2024, existing storage and import capacity is expected to be sufficient to meet demand and maintain gas stocks until the end of the winter.

However, these assessments are not a forecast for gas supply as they are influenced by many factors, including policy decisions and market conditions.

In terms of supply in the summer of 2023, the review shows that total demand in the EU is 3% lower than last year and 15% lower than the five-year average, with a reduction in the share of pipeline gas supplies from Russia. LNG played a larger role, helping to fill storage during the summer period. Overall, the sum of all imports into Europe, together with domestic production, decreased by about 16%.

The ENTSOG report provides valuable insights into the current situation and challenges of gas supply in Europe, and highlights the importance of diversification and flexibility in energy infrastructure.

For further information on ENTSOG's "Summer Supply Outlook 2024", please refer to the link provided.